MikeFeibus

Taller than a Galaxy S5. Tougher than Gorilla Glass. Softer contours than the iPhone 5. But it’s what’s inside that really counts.

Read my latest column HERE.

When the first tablets bounded onto the scene four years ago, everyone wanted one. They sold quickly and immediately snagged our time and attention away from our smartphones and laptops. No wonder: They were more responsive than our laptops, and the no-keyboard design made them easier to read, watch videos, and scan social networks. The screens were much larger than our smartphones, so they were easier on the eyes and more pleasant to navigate. And every time we picked up our tablets, we were saving precious battery on our go-to devices.

It’s a very different story today, however. Smartphones continue their ascension. And notebook PCs are resurgent. But after growing 52% in 2013, according to IDC, tablet shipments are expected to expand just 6.5% this year. Demand is even more anemic when you consider that a major growth driver this year is tablets that aren’t even sold as tablets: low-cost 7-inch and 8-inch models with cellular capability. They’re being billed as big, cheap smartphones for consumers in emerging markets.

What’s happening here is that we’re returning to what I call personal device equilibrium — one in the pocket and one in the bag — which is something I predicted would happen from the get-go. Consumers are finding that they just don’t need tablets anymore, because ever-more capable smartphones and 2-in-1 notebooks are squeezing them out of their personal quivers.

The smartphone has been siphoning more of the tablet’s load recently, for a couple reasons. First, smartphones are much easier to view for long periods than they were when the first iPad shipped in 2010, primarily because displays are much larger — and growing larger still. Shipments of so-called phablets — smartphones with displays measuring at least 5 inches — are growing more than three times as fast as the overall market this year. Total units are now approaching tablet shipments. Apple, one of the last phablet holdouts, is expected to announce a 5.5-inch iPhone 6 on Sept. 9.

Second, battery life is improving dramatically. Part of that is simply because vendors can fit a much larger battery into a smartphone with a larger display. But the suppliers are also paying more attention to power management because they understand that consumers want to rely on their smartphones more — but only if they’ll still have enough juice to take a call at the end of the day.

Battery life, in fact, has been one of the greatest areas of advancement in 2-in-1 notebooks — and a big reason tablets aren’t needed anymore. There was a big leap in battery life late last year — at about the time tablet shipments began slowing, interestingly enough — and another impressive boost is coming with the new fifth-generation Core M processors. The new chips boast twice the battery life with a battery only half as large as laptops that were selling when the first iPad arrived. And they run cool enough for PC makers to produce full-fledged 2-in-1 PCs that are as thin and quiet as traditional media tablets. The first of these systems will be unveiled Friday, ahead of the Intel Developer Forum.

Some of the new 2-in-1s actually adopt the tablet form factor and come with detachable keyboards. I prefer a few of the hinged clamshell-type models that fold into what the PC makers call “tablet mode.” It might be a little heavier and thicker than the tablet-first implementations. But I never have to worry about losing the keyboard or being without it when I need it. For many — me included — 12-inch and 13-inch 2-in-1s offer the best mix of tablet portability and productivity. I do know plenty of people who still prefer 15-inch displays, and there are 2-in-1s coming that fit the bill for them, too.

Travel tip: Airlines nowadays allow only smartphones and tablets to be used during taxi, takeoff, and landing. But I’ve found that as long as the keyboard is detached or tucked away, flight attendants won’t stop you from using a 12-inch or 13-inch 2-in-1.

That’s just another in a long list of reasons we don’t need tablets anymore. Smartphones have picked up some of the slack. But the transformation in the laptop that’s happened over the short life of tablets is truly amazing. Many of the new 2-in-1s are thinner than the disk drives inside a four-year-old laptop, with far more capability and battery life.

If you’re reading this on a four-year-old laptop, then I don’t have to tell you. You’re living it. So you probably don’t need a big incentive to go out and snag one of these sleek new systems. But just in case you do, consider this: There may not have been another four-year period in the history of the PC where it’s changed so much.

Plus, if you’ve been saving up for tablet, there’s another few hundred dollars you can put toward a 2-in-1. Because, as I’ve said, there’s no reason to buy a tablet. Not anymore.

** Updated version. Original published in Information Week. **

It should come as no surprise that Steve Ballmer is out as Microsoft CEO. The company’s vision for client computing is miserably off base, and that’s on him. How could he have blessed such a misguided strategy for client devices?

On Ballmer’s watch, Microsoft rolled out Windows 8, a product that is destined to go down as one of the most colossal missteps in computing history. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it morph one day into a verb for undermining your own product. Like, for example, “the way they eight their core product like that, it’s no wonder they went belly up.”

Any first-year b-school student would tell you that Microsoft disregarded the basic tenets of business expansion with Windows 8. Find out how and why HERE.

Regardless of whether it decides to spin off PayPal, what’s left for eBay, a company that matched the perfect item with faraway buyers now that consumers are demanding it here and now?

The titans of technology have spent lavishly for your eyeballs. Now they’re opening their checkbooks to scoop up services to get you to lend them your ears. Here’s why. What’s coming. And how to spot the winners.

Read the Information Week column HERE.

The titans of technology went on a shopping spree in the first half of 2014. Here’s a look at why they spent so much, what they are really after, who won and who lost.

Also: What to expect in the second half.

Read the Information Week column HERE

And here’s the video:

Midyear Report: Tech Titans Winners & Losers from Mike Feibus on Vimeo.

Forget about orange. In the high-stakes world of mobile e-commerce, gunning for Google is the new black. Three industry stalwarts have all taken aim this month to neutralize Google. If it wants to fight fire with fire, then here are four points the internet titan should nail at Google I/O this week.

Check out my new video HERE.

And my Information Week column HERE.

Here’s why a “sell phone” is so important to Amazon, and what AT&T means to the deal.

After days of rumor-chasing and breathless anticipation, Amazon unveiled its new smartphone. Called the Amazon Fire Phone, it’s got some pretty cool features. And as expected, it is first and foremost a “buyPhone.” It takes shopping to a whole new level here.

Given how much Amazon stands to gain by getting this phone in our hands, the price is head-scratchingly high. At $199, it’s competitive. But it’s not an offer we can’t refuse.

Watch the full video HERE.

Watch for Amazon’s long-rumored device to usher in a new era of commerce-optimized smartphones. Call it the industry’s first sell phone. With the Amazon-tailored shopping device in your back pocket, however, you just might be tempted to call it your first buyPhone.

Read the entire column on InformationWeek.

This week, Verizon added to NetFlix’ frustration, apparently adopting Comcast’s throughput-throttling negotiation tactics. Check out my new video here to find out what NetFlix might learn from AT&T’s acquisition of DirecTV.

Is there really a tech bubble?

If Facebook’s acquisition of WhatsApp for $19 billion didn’t settle it for you, then Apple’s decision to buy Beats audio for $3 billion should do the trick.

Fact is, Apple needed to buy Beats. Even if it meant shelling out $3 billion to do it. Check out my video to find out why. And what might lie ahead.

Apple gave developers an awful lot to work with today at the Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC), and many left happy – or at least happier than they were when they got up this morning. But much of what Apple announced on-stage was designed either to keep the other Titans of Technology off their turf, or to add a new feature to attract consumers from the other Titans’ platforms.

Indeed, these are just the latest volleys in a high-stakes match for consumers’ hearts and minds – and, ultimately, their wallets. The chart above summarizes some of Apple’s moves today, and who they impact most. As well, I’ve thrown in some speculation on what might happen next as a result.

A year or so ago, clients first started asking me what I thought of the prospects for Chrome OS. What I told them was this: if you want to know about Chrome’s chances, then find out what Microsoft is up to. After all, it was Microsoft’s missteps that gave Google’s cloud-centric PC platform the gaping hole in the desktop market to drive through. And it is the software giant that has the power to mute Chrome’s outlook by righting the badly listing Windows ship.

Clients still ask the question today. I still answer the same way, though the range of possible outcomes is better for Chrome than it was last year — and worse for Windows. A healthy Windows would still pinch the spread, but it could no longer eradicate Google’s upstart OS like it could in 2012.

In a year, I might still be giving the same answer. But the clock is ticking.

Read the full column on TechPinions …

Are wearable fitness trackers really a game-changing phenomenon? Or are they just the latest in a long line of gimmicks designed to snag money from the wallets of people who really want to get in shape but never seem to?

I’ve been of the mind that an awful lot of the devices will be sitting with the Shake Weight on the treadmill-cum-clothesline in the study. But I’m starting to change my tune.

I’ll submit that my position may be colored at least in part by the wearables hangover I’ve been nursing since CES last month. The manic rush to strap sensors onto body parts and embed them into other connected devices at times felt more like parody than plan. It reminded me of the days before the dot com bubble burst – on a much smaller scale, of course – when all you needed was a PowerPoint deck and a sock puppet to secure enough funding to run Super Bowl ads.

By the time I flew out of Vegas, I’d coined a new acronym: IoC, or Internet of Crap.

No doubt, there is an awful lot of IoC out there. But it’s not all IoC. There are Amazon.com’s out there with the Pet.com’s of the wearables era.

So which is Fitbit? Read my entire column HERE.

Hackers recently pried their way into customer data at Target and SnapChat. It’s a costly proposition for both, to be sure. But while one company’s wings may be permanently clipped, watch for the other to dust itself off and continue on as before.

Why are consumer reactions to the two heists so pronounced? Because they view the Target hack as a security breach. And even though thieves got less information per SnapChat customer, consumers see that breakin as a violation of their privacy.

Find out why HERE.

Autographs? Now that’s how you get fans to share their location and other personal information with you!

Last Sunday, Qualcomm and the Dolphins lit up proximity beacons around Sun Life Stadium in Miami, and gave a group of fans a taste of location-aware discounts, inside information and other benefits delivered to their smartphones. Like notifications that the food line one section over is much shorter than the one you’re standing in now. Or coupons as you pass the team store.

And an alert that players are signing autographs at the loyalty tent. What loyal fan wouldn’t want their favorite player’s autograph? Right?

There’s a good lesson here for anyone planning contextually aware apps. That is, if you want their information, you have to follow these three steps:

• Tell them what they’re sharing
• Tell them what you’re going to use it for, and
• Give them something in return.

Read my entire column on the subject HERE.

The MarketsofOne TechSummit welcomes Qualcomm as Charter Sponsor. MarketsofOne is the first industrywide forum dedicated entirely to contextual awareness. Digital Sixth Sense, which is Qualcomm’s vision for contextual awareness, is closely aligned with the concept for the summit.

The conference will be held April 10th, 2014, at the Four Seasons in Palo Alto, CA. Learn more HERE.

When I talk to people about indoor-tracking tools like iBeacon, which Apple launched at its US stores last Friday, they’re both fascinated and frightened. They quickly appreciate how helpful a connected world can be when it knows where you are and what you’re doing. But the steady of stream of news about privacy intrusions — mostly by the NSA — makes them wonder if the cost of allowing access to more personal data is really worth it.

Location is the cornerstone for contextual awareness, a collection of efforts aimed at giving our smartphones the tools they need to begin making timely, relevant suggestions and even take action on our behalf. Understanding that we’re standing in front of the smartphones rather than the tablets is an important piece of the puzzle.

Apple introduced the iBeacon feature as part of the iOS 7 launch in September. It makes use of the iPhone’s Bluetooth radio to communicate with other iOS 7 devices as well as compatible sensors placed at strategic spots around Apple stores. Among other things, the close-range nature of Bluetooth can be used to pinpoint a shopper’s whereabouts to deliver location-specific messages. For example, someone with an older iPhone might get a trade-in offer while checking out the newer models.

The demand for insight into ever-more pots of your personal information is increasing just as the backlash from ongoing NSA revelations is making consumers more aware of the digital fingerprints they’re leaving behind, and increasingly wary of those with access.

Read the entire column HERE.

For those with a stake in consumer PC sales, there is cause for hope this year.

The environment is much improved from 2012’s disastrous holiday season. For one thing, the tablet market is fatigued. The pace of change in media tablets has slowed, so those devices aren’t nearly so alluring this year. That’s probably just as well because most people who wanted to buy a tablet already have one. Or two. Plus, demand has migrated to 8-inch tablets from the 10-inch range, so it’s now much easier to differentiate even the smallest new Windows 8 machines.

Innovation may be plateauing in media tablets, but it’s alive and well in the laptop space. The new 2-in-1’s – laptops that also function as tablets – are noticeably thinner, lighter, and sturdier than last year’s crop. They’re uber-responsive, so you won’t think twice going to your go-to device. And the battery life is far better, which means you won’t regret depending on your laptop so often.

The shopping is also much better this year because there are so many 2-in-1’s to choose from. The major manufacturers are all offering a range of models, from the sharp, clever envy-inducers all the way down to entry-level dual-mode models as low as $500. There’s a 2-in-1 for everyone, you might say.

Displays span from tablet size all the way up to the 15.5-inch range. And there are different schemes for switching to tablet mode, as well. HP’s Split X2 sheds the keyboard, while others, like Lenovo’s Yoga2 Pro or the Flip from Sony, tuck the keyboard away. There are even tablet-first 2-in-1s like Asus’ T100, which can pinch-hit as laptops.

Retail layouts are much improved from last year, when about the only way to figure out which systems incorporated touch was to go around poking screens. Stroll into a store today and it’s much easier for consumers to figure out what choices they need to make.  The traditional notebooks are now separated from the touch-enabled systems. And the touch PCs are further divided into clamshells and 2-in-1’s.

Consumers are really warming to the notion of double-duty systems. Microsoft’s Surface ads – and now Intel’s new spots promoting the two-in-one concept – are resonating with consumers, who are far more willing to listen this year. For one thing, their PCs – many of which were ready to be replaced last year – are getting pretty long in the tooth. And while consumers may not be bolting to the store to snap up a new Surface, the messages are impacting consumer preferences. I’ve been toting a Surface Pro on the road lately, and I’m surprised how often people tell me that they want something like that. They want a PC that can function as a tablet. And they really want a USB port. I mean, they really want a USB port.

It could be tablet fatigue. Or it could be that the pendulum is swinging back toward fewer electronic devices.

The demographic, I’ve observed, that buys into the two-in-one value proposition with more conviction than any other is the 25- to 34-year-old crowd. They’re just starting to build disposable income, so they’re much less inclined to have dropped hundreds of dollars on a tablet over the past several years. They’ve been making do with an older laptop or netbook. They type on their keyboards and longingly watch tablet users across the coffee shop cradling their devices and touching the displays.

They know the price of investing in the wrong system – particularly those saddled with netbooks. They want to replace their PCs, not add to their device arsenal. And they want something that is willing and able to scoot the keyboard away and sidle up to them when they sit back to watch a movie or read a book.

It’s not just the 25- to 34-year-olds, though. There are lots of consumers out there with old PCs they’re ready to replace. For them, there is a stable of spectacular systems to entice them, a sales channel that is far better prepared to help them hone in on what they want and fewer distractions to obstruct the purchase.

Sounds like a pretty good holiday season to me.

—-

Microsoft finally has given us a sign that the company understands its enterprise hegemony is at risk – and that it intends to do something about it. At their financial analyst gathering last month, executives dropped strong hints that the company is developing Outlook for the iPad and Android, although they didn’t come right out and say so.

No question that such a move is long overdue. Office dominates business productivity, though it’s under attack from Google Docs and other cloud-based services. And the longer it takes to protect that turf with moves like porting Office to other platforms, the larger the threat becomes.

But in fairness to Microsoft, the issue is so knotted up in a web of competing company interests that I’m surprised that executives are able to do anything. Indeed, one of the more difficult challenges any executive faces is how to make and manage decisions that benefit one internal group at the expense of another. The rational option, at least from a pure market potential point of view, is usually pretty apparent. The difficulty comes in trying to navigate all the beehives around the organization that you’ll be poking with your chosen direction. Imagine telling one of your kids that you love his sister more than him. If you can picture saying that — and what it would do to your day — then you’ve got a feel for management’s challenge.

The dilemma for Microsoft with its Office decision is that versions for iOS and Android would weaken Windows’ market position because it would hand to competing tablet platforms what today is an exclusive benefit that comes with choosing Windows. And it’s not as though Windows’ place in computing is so secure that in can afford to lose that. Many of its problems have been self-inflicted, yes. But the onslaught of tablets undoubtedly has contributed to the platform’s state, which is shakier now than at any time since a superior DOS from Digital Research threatened the transition to Windows.

So what to do? Prop up Windows or let Office address the entire market?

Read the entire column HERE.

Most IT managers are well aware that they have barely 200 shopping days to replace the Windows XP systems in their fleets before Microsoft stops supporting the 12-year-old operating system. That’s the bad news. The good news is that he who hesitated is not lost. The early bird did not get the worm. If you’ve waited this long, you’ll be rewarded for waiting at least another couple of days because there’s a truly great class of systems that starts to come available later this week.

All of the major OEMs will begin rolling out these systems on the heels of news from the Intel Developer Forum, which begins Tuesday in San Francisco, that Intel’s enterprise-ready Haswell processors — fourth-generation Core chips with built-in vPro, the company’s security and manageability package — are now available.

The newest Core processors boast an impressive jump in power management along with a corresponding bump in performance. What that enables are impressively thin, light systems capable of handling anything you might throw at them during a typical day. For many of these new systems, all of that comes without the need to plug them into the wall for the duration of the work day.

That newfound lift in both battery life and processing power has been widely reported since Intel’s fourth-generation Core chips first came to market in June. What’s new this week is that Intel is folding its enterprise-class vPro technology into the lineup. It’s all the same security and manageability features that IT managers have come to expect, plus a few new ones.

The PC market has sagged recently because many consumers are turned off or confused by Windows 8. But IT managers aren’t bogged down by that issue. They’ve got the Windows XP deadline hanging over their heads, and it’s compelling them to buy new systems over the next seven months.

Being compelled to buy couldn’t happen at a better time because of the banner crop of systems coming out. A couple of the new PCs have been disclosed ahead of Intel’s official vPro-enabled processor announcement, though most of the major OEMs will start to unveil theirs later this week. Many of them are traditional clamshells, though designs are trending decisively toward touch-enabled systems as well as some innovative form factors. I’ve got my eye on an as-yet-unannounced detachable: a clamshell that lets you separate the screen from the keyboard so that in a pinch you can use it as a tablet.

Intel’s added a few things to the vPro bundle, with a new twist. VPro’s always been all about making IT’s job easier. The new vPro makes life easier for the rest of us, too — with features such as built-in security for VPN certification, so you no longer need to type in a certificate each time you connect to the corporate network. So far, that works with market leader Cisco’s offerings. Intel says it plans to support other players as well.

There’s also location-based data embedded into the wireless stream, along with hooks for Microsoft’s System Center Configuration Manager, or SCCM, to find your PC. With that, IT can make it so that your system chooses whichever printer is closest to you at the moment, or homes in on the closest available conference room. That’s a whole lot easier than scanning through all the corporate assets yourself. Thus far, the feature supports Cisco, Aruba and Aeroscout access points.

The new vPro bundle also includes an enterprise-class version of Intel’s Wireless Display, or Wi-Di, technology. It enables you to quickly, easily and securely tie into the projector that’s in the conference room you’re using. Some newer projectors are compatible with the technology, though Wi-Di adapters can enable older projectors.

All of that’s to say that, for this situation at least, the old axioms advocating quick action turned out to be bad advice. Waiting was the right choice. And now, finally, you only have to wait a little bit longer.

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It is time for Intel to begin placing bigger bets on Windows alternatives.

Let me assure you that I’m not schizophrenic, although I do understand why you might be wondering about that right now. Yes, I do remember the advice I gave to Intel CEO Brian Krzanich in my last column, Don’t Give Up on the PC. And now I’m suggesting he invest more heavily in Windows competitors. I know it sounds contradictory. But it’s not.

As Intel’s new top executive continues to evaluate the company’s strategic priorities, he’d be foolhardy not to give Windows every shot at success. The company’s PC Client Group, or PCG, generates far more sales and profit than any other business unit – and the lion’s share of those spoils comes from Intel chips inside Windows machines. Hence the don’t-give-up message.

The flipside is that, on an annual basis, PCG’s revenue and operating income have been declining every quarter since Microsoft released Windows 8 to manufacturing. Coincidence? Unless you’re the kind of person who needs those pre-flight seat-belt fastening instructions, you don’t need me to answer that.

OK, so don’t put all your eggs in the Windows basket. Check. Now for the tough part: where to incubate the rest of those eggs?

Read the entire column HERE.

Intel CEO Brian Krzanich kicked off the first tech earnings call of the quarter by emphasizing that he’s putting a “much, much stronger effort on Atom,” the family of processors designed to power smartphones and tablets.

That’s a sensible direction to take things, in light of the PC market’s malaise. But how to re-distribute priorities? We don’t really have a basis for an answer yet because we haven’t yet gotten to see how compelling the PC can be amidst the tablet invasion because the ecosystem has yet to put its best foot forward.

To be sure, today’s PCs are far better than the state of the art three years ago, when Apple launched the original iPad. Due in large part to Intel’s Ultrabook initiative, today’s systems are far more responsive. They’re also far more attractive. And they last far longer on a charge. These are all things that make today’s PCs far more attractive than circa 2010 models.

Compelling as they are, though, these new PCs are still hobbling up to the starting gate  – just as they did last season. I’ve covered the Windows handicap in previous columns, so I won’t re-launch that rant (even though I REALLY WANT TO). If I were Krzanich, I’d tackle a few more industry-wide shortcomings as quickly as possible. Because until they’re resolved, we really won’t have any indication of how the PC will fare in the tablet era – which means Krzanich can’t know how much investment the traditional PC market deserves going forward.

Here’s what I’d tackle first:

On the tables inside the press room at the Microsoft Build Conference — a room full of computer-savvy tech press and industry analysts — lay printed instructions for how to complete a Wi-Fi connection in Windows 8.

Just Windows 8.

“Enter Desktop Mode by pressing (Windows Key) + D,” the 8.5 x 11 Wi-Fi lesson began. In contrast, the clerk at my hotel handed me — and anyone else with a reservation — a fortune cookie-sized slip of paper that provided nothing more than a SSID and network security key.

The photocopied tutorial serves as a comical exclamation point to what CEO Steve Ballmer tried to drive home during his opening keynote address: that Microsoft gets it. And it’s trying to do something about it.

Read the entire column HERE.

Since Computex in early June, PC makers have been rolling out  the next generation of ultrabook PCs. These systems are more than just another turn of the screw. They are game-changers with the potential to disrupt the way we interact with our personal electronics.

I’ve written plenty about how Microsoft’s missteps with Windows 8 have hampered OEMs’ ability to sell new PCs for the past year. And about how the timing of the Windows 8.1 release is going to clip the sales potential of this new crop of systems. That’s all still true. The PC OEMs are facing yet another daunting selling season.

Let’s be clear, though: the challenging market climate in no way undermines what this new spate of ultrabooks brings to the table. They sport a host of improvements over the last wave of ultrabooks, impressive as they were from a pure hardware perspective. Instant on, for example, is now becoming a reality. As well, the fourth-generation Intel Core processors inside afford OEMs the opportunity to build sleek, sexy systems that boast up to twice the battery life of last year’s models — without sacrificing performance. If you are in the market for a new laptop, it means you should be able to find an ultrabook that lasts all day on a single charge.

Read the entire column HERE.

It is going to be very difficult for Microsoft to succeed with Windows 8.1, and that has little to do with whether the official build will include a Start button or boot-to-desktop option. Rather, it’s because Microsoft picked a terrible time to release the upcoming follow-on to Windows 8.

When it comes to weaving the saga of Windows 8.1, the media has pretty well vetted three of the Five W’s. Most of the analysis goes like this: Microsoft (Who) must improve on Windows 8 by doing X (What) to bring more computer users into the Modern UI era (Why). The other two W’s, though, have been largely ignored. One of them, Where, isn’t really relevant to the story. But it’s curious that the question of When has barely been touched, because it’s tremendously important to the prospects for Windows 8.1 success.

Microsoft hasn’t come out and said when Windows 8.1, code-named Windows Blue, will be commercially available, although Digitimes is reporting that the official release will come in late October. Judging from the state of development activity, the timing sounds about right. This much is certain: Windows 8.1 will not be available in the next six weeks, as it needs to be to make it into the first batch of next-generation PCs.

Those cool new systems are being released in June and early July for a reason: to intercept the critical back-to-school selling season. An October launch for Windows 8.1 means that back-to-school PCs will be saddled with a lame-duck version of Windows. (I’ve written before about how important it is for the PC OEMs to update in lockstep their entire product: hardware, OS, and aesthetics.) That means we’ll see fewer PC sales than we would if PC makers were able to pair their latest hardware with the latest operating system.

Targeting the holiday season with a new version of Windows used to make perfect sense because retail copies sell better, and there was little to lose by shortchanging back-to-school systems. Not so anymore. Times have changed.

Read the entire column HERE.